Superdata has released their forecasts for the Nintendo Switch, pointing to a less than stellar 5 million SKU roll out by the end of 2017.
GamesIndustry.biz picked up quotes from the marketing research firm, who stated...
"Nintendo is gearing up for a slow-and-steady release of its new console," "Launching much earlier in the year than its predecessors, we expect the Switch to initially appeal mostly to the loyal fanbase, before a broader, more mainstream audience adopts it."
Early pre-order stock has revealed that the Switch is all sold out. According to Nintendo of America president, Reggie Fils-Aime, the company has secured up to 2 million SKUs to ship during March. Pre-orders have stayed sold out since January, so it's possible they'll move half of Superdata's estimates within the span of a single month.
Superdata, however, cited such a conservative number due to stiff competition from the Xbox One and PS4, who they state are priced lower and more competitively than the Switch, and they come with a game bundled in, where-as the Switch just comes with the base system for $299.
GamesIndustry.biz makes a solid observation that even at 5 million SKUs between March and December, it's a better figure than what the Wii U moved between a 14 month period where it sold 5.86 million units.
I think there's a lot of underestimation going on regarding the Switch given that it targets the home console arena and the portable gaming market. Anyone who wants a new version of the Nintendo 3DS will likely want to get a Switch, and any family looking for a decent home console with strong local multiplayer to keep their rug-rats busy while they each pretend to be working overtime at the office even though they're actually having an affair with a coworker in the wee hours of the night. Because as we all know, coffee isn't the only thing to keep you up at night and it certainly doesn't smell like Coco Mademoiselle.
Nevertheless, the Switch's 5 million figure will likely be crushed before spring is out, assuming Nintendo has proper supply for the demand.
It would be detrimental to their own success if they actually did only schedule to ship 5 million for the year. However, previous reports indicated they were gunning to ship between 7 and 10 million SKUs. The Switch goes on sale tomorrow worldwide for $299.99.
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