Trends rarely remain stable over extended period of time. Often their best hope is to enjoy generational appeal, but even such an achievement doesn’t guarantee a prolonged life. Fortnite rose to prominence in 2017 and has become one of the most successful franchises to date generating 2.4 billion dollars in 2018. Now new data shows the decline of the juggernaut title is not stabilizing, but is continuing a downward trajectory.
Edison Trends recently put out their analysis of Fortnite’s performance year-over-year compared to other titles and the data doesn’t look good for Fortnite. During the same time year-over-year time period revenue generation for Fortnite dropped 52%. Compared to its competition PUBG has gained 2% growth, Apex Legends has remained stable with an income bump attributable to their $170 event held in August.
From the data we can see Apex did the best but still saw a 38% decrease month-over-month in reoccurring spending from players. Fortnite fared worse seeing a 51% drop between June and July. A trend that is more disparaging when it is taken into consideration in the month of July Fornite held a special event on the 20th. Said event apparently failed to draw back in player spending, but season 10 has been mired with controversial, often unpopular decisions .
Season 10 hasn’t been the best season the series faces other issues that are unlikely to reverse. Player Fatigue is high after going on three years of essentially playing the same game with only minor changes each season. There is only so often the novelty of a new region on the same map is going to last. In my experience that was about a day or two. Though it is anecdotal I know many of my friends and associates have quit playing Fortnite as a result of the occasional cheater and random inconsistencies that finally drove them to be fed up with the game.
Season 11 appears to be gearing up for a massive map reset and overhaul to the game, but at the end of the day the question remains will this draw consumers back into the declining franchise? Trends don’t usually reverse themselves after this length of time. Fortnite’s popularity and consumer spending are unlikely to change their course as more and more users move onto other games or just grow out of gaming as a result of work and other responsibilities. Epic soon will find themselves in need of either dialing back their spending or seeking diversified income. Given they have added little value to the user to their store, as analysts have predicted, when the Fortnite money truly dries up the store is likely to go with it.